Man Utd win 2024/25 Oracle Most Improbable Comeback award

Manchester United's incredible 2-1 win against Manchester City has been voted the 2024/25 Oracle Most Improbable Comeback. 

Ruben Amorim's side were 1-0 down in the Manchester derby with 88 minutes played after Josko Gvardiol's header had given City a 1-0 first-half lead.

However, the visitors, inspired by substitute Amad, managed to secure a dramatic late turnaround victory.

The 22-year-old Ivorian won a penalty, which was converted by Bruno Fernandes, before scoring himself from a tight angle with stoppage time looming.

Man Utd claim the award after, for the first time, the winner was determined by a fan vote from a shortlist of the teams that came back to win from the most improbable circumstances this season, or where there was the highest probability of defeat calculated using the Win Probability Statistic developed by Stats Perform. This calculates the chance of a team securing a win or draw by simulating the remainder of the match 100,000 times. 

The model is based on years of match data and takes into account if a team are home or away, the current score, penalties awarded, players on the pitch, red cards and time left in the match.

The probability of a win is calculated every minute for every Premier League match in a season, in real-time.

Oracle Most Improbable Comeback winners

2021/22: Leicester 2-3 Spurs
2022/23: Nott'm Forest 2-3 Bournemouth
2023/24: Bournemouth 4-3 Luton