
Man Utd win 2024/25 Oracle Most Improbable Comeback award
Premier League
May 31, 2025
Manchester United's incredible 2-1 win against Manchester City has been voted the 2024/25 Oracle Most Improbable Comeback.
Ruben Amorim's side were 1-0 down in the Manchester derby with 88 minutes played after Josko Gvardiol's header had given City a 1-0 first-half lead.
However, the visitors, inspired by substitute Amad, managed to secure a dramatic late turnaround victory.
The 22-year-old Ivorian won a penalty, which was converted by Bruno Fernandes, before scoring himself from a tight angle with stoppage time looming.
Man Utd claim the award after, for the first time, the winner was determined by a fan vote from a shortlist of the teams that came back to win from the most improbable circumstances this season, or where there was the highest probability of defeat calculated using the Win Probability Statistic developed by Stats Perform. This calculates the chance of a team securing a win or draw by simulating the remainder of the match 100,000 times.
The model is based on years of match data and takes into account if a team are home or away, the current score, penalties awarded, players on the pitch, red cards and time left in the match.
The probability of a win is calculated every minute for every Premier League match in a season, in real-time.
Oracle Most Improbable Comeback winners
2021/22: Leicester 2-3 Spurs
2022/23: Nott'm Forest 2-3 Bournemouth
2023/24: Bournemouth 4-3 Luton
Comments
You need to be logged in to comment
No comments yet. Be the first to comment!
Need a website?
Then contact us for professional web development services.
Table of Contents
Share this article
More from the blog

Xabi Alonso admits one player was responsible for 'defining' Real Madrid's system vs Dortmund
Real Madrid head coach Xabi Alonso has provided a fascinating insight into the crucial role played by one particular member of his squad against Borussia Dortmund. Real, of course, are fresh off booki...

Transfers: Arsenal announce Zubimendi arrival
Arsenal have signed midfielder Martin Zubimendi from Real Sociedad. The Spain international, 26, moves to the Emirates Stadium on a long-term deal after the Gunners reportedly triggered his £51 millio...

Jonny Evans staying at Man Utd! Veteran defender handed key transfer role after hanging up his boots | Goal.com
Jonny Evans is reportedly staying with Manchester United after announcing his retirement, with a key transfer role set to be filled. WHAT HAPPENED? At the age of 37, veteran defender Evans is hangi...