Dembele, Yamal or Salah? Breaking Down the Bookies’ Picks for Ballon d’Or 2025

The Ballon d’Or trophy stands as the pinnacle of individual achievement in football – the gleaming prize that will be awarded on September 22, 2025.

After a season of drama (Paris Saint-Germain clinched the Champions League and domestic titles, Liverpool won the Premier League, Barcelona took La Liga, etc.), fans are buzzing: Who is the favorite to lift football’s biggest individual prize? Right now, bookmakers and pundits point to one name above all others.

It’s worth remembering the context. The 2024 Ballon d’Or was won by Manchester City’s Rodri, but he’s sidelined by an ACL injury and won’t defend his crown. Lionel Messi – winner of 3 of the last 5 editions – isn’t even in the running this year.

With those giants out of the way, this year’s field is wide open. The nominee list is heavy on players from trophy-winning squads, so when oddsmakers set their odds, PSG’s superstar naturally takes pole position.

Ousmane Dembélé – PSG’s Golden Boy and the Bookies’ Top Pick

Ousmane Dembélé

When you scan the latest odds, one name leaps off the page: Ousmane Dembélé. Nearly every bookmaker makes Dembélé the clear favorite.

For example, Scotsman Sport reports he’s at 1/5 odds, while Betfair lists him at about 1/4. Those odds imply around an 80–85% chance in simple betting terms – an overwhelming lead. Why so confident?

• Triple Crown: Dembélé was pivotal as PSG won a historic treble (Ligue 1, Coupe de France and the UEFA Champions League) last season. In each competition he made a difference.
• Jaw-Dropping Stats: He bagged around 35 goals in all competitions (a personal best). That’s elite numbers, rivaling any attacker in Europe.
• Trophy Magnet: Beyond goals, he helped bring home silverware. France Football’s criteria heavily reward team success – and PSG won nearly everything.
• Endorsement from Above: PSG coach Luis Enrique said it plainly: “If there is one player who has done all that [a Ballon requires], it is Ousmane Dembélé. He is far and away above other players”. High praise from a man who won the 2015 Ballon d’Or himself.

These points sum up why Dembélé leads the pack. In short, he checked all the boxes: goals, assists, trophies. His manager’s quote is practically a prediction. As a result, bookmakers put Dembele at rock-bottom odds – they figure he’s that likely to win.

Lamine Yamal – The 18-Year-Old Prodigy From Barça

Lamine Yamal

Right on Dembélé’s heels is a very different story: Lamine Yamal, the new sensation at Barcelona. At just 17 (turning 18 this year), Yamal has burst into the spotlight with incredible speed.

“Dembele, Yamal or Salah? Breaking Down the Bookies’ Picks for Ballon d’Or 2025”

Oddsmakers have him at about 3/1, making him the second favorite. Why is this teenager suddenly in the Ballon mix?

• League Champion: Yamal was a key starter as Barça won La Liga. He delivered crucial assists and dazzling wing play throughout the season, helping Barca clinch the title. Top defenders fear him.
• Record-Breaking Youth: He’d be the youngest-ever Ballon winner by far, which makes his story irresistible. Fans love a prodigy narrative.
• Mega Talent: Experts gush about him – OneFootball calls Yamal “arguably the most exciting talent to emerge since Lionel Messi”. That kind of hype sticks in voters’ minds.
• High Ceiling: Having already proven himself at 17, people expect Yamal will peak in the coming years. This vote could be seen as a head start on future glory.

If you ask why Yamal is the betting market’s #2, it’s that combination of (a) playing a starring role on a title-winning team and (b) enormous hype. In a way, he’s the polar opposite of the veteran Dembélé – but his star is rising fast. The odds reflect that bookmakers think he has a real shot, even as a longshot teenager.

Mohamed Salah – Liverpool’s Veteran Contender

Mo Salah

Another name firmly in the conversation is Mohamed Salah. At 31, Salah isn’t the young prodigy anymore, but what he did this year was extraordinary.

Liverpool stormed back to the Premier League title, and Salah was at the heart of it. He scored 29 goals and 18 assists, winning a record-tying fourth Premier League Golden Boot. That MVP-level season put him on every shortlist.

In betting markets Salah is farther back – around 16/1 at Betfair – so he’s not a favorite in the same league as Dembélé or Yamal. Still, that’s a respectable rank considering the field. His case rests on consistent excellence and leadership.

Fans remember he was once a Ballon finalist (he finished 2nd in 2018). This may be his last genuine shot at the trophy. If voters reward the veteran who kept getting better with age, Salah’s name is up there.

Key points for Salah:

• Championship Impact: He drove Liverpool to the title, as noted. Voters love league winners.
• Goal Machine: His goal tally (29 in the PL) was on par with Europe’s best attackers.
• Experience & Narrative: Having finally won the PL again, narrative-wise he’s a sentimental pick.
• Odds Pressure: At 16/1, he’d need a couple of other candidates to falter; but this is Ballon d’Or, where any of the shortlist could theoretically pull off a shock.

Others in the Mix – Dark Horses and Outsiders

Beyond these three, a handful of other names pop up on betting boards and pundit lists. It’s a long shot to beat the favorites, but here’s who’s hanging around:

• Vitinha (PSG): A key cog in PSG’s treble-winning midfield. Bookmakers have him around 14/1. If teams only considered contributions to winning, Vitinha’s CV (CL + league + cup) is spotless.
• Raphinha (Barcelona): A solid season (La Liga title, UCL semi). Priced about 16/1.
• Cole Palmer (Chelsea): This was a surprise to many. Cole Palmer helped Chelsea win the Europa Conference League and the Club World Cup (both in 2024) – the last two trophies of any prestige. He’s on the shortlist and listed about 20/1.
• Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): Yes, he’s nominated (contrary to initial beliefs). In his first year at Real he scored 31 goals in 34 La Liga games, though he won no trophies. Still, oddsmakers at around 33/1 give him a puncher’s chance.
• Nuno Mendes, Achraf Hakimi (PSG): Defensive stars on the treble team. Both are around 33/1 in the market. Rare for defenders to win, but possible.
• Notably missing: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) — despite winning the Champions League and La Liga, he wasn’t nominated. His absence shows how much weight winning with a team still carries.

In short: there are plenty of names behind Dembele/Yamal/Salah, but they’re mostly outsiders. None have the combo of stats+stories that the top trio do.

OneFootball’s betting column notes even Declan Rice is on the ballot at 300/1, more by token of a good Arsenal season than serious contention.

Betting Odds & Ballon d’Or Logic – A Recap

So what do the numbers say? Bookies are effectively placing big chips on two players: PSG’s Dembélé and Barca’s Yamal.

Dembele’s odds (as low as 1/5 or 1/4) dwarf everyone else’s. Yamal’s 3/1 makes him second. Behind them come Salah (~16/1) and a few PSG teammates in the teens. Virtually everyone else is 30/1 or longer.

This lines up with an obvious rule: team success + personal stats = votes. Dembélé’s on trophy mountain; Yamal and Salah on big league wins. It follows a pattern: recent Ballon’s often went to players who won the Champions League or World Cup (or league) and scored loads of goals.

Messi had his World Cup boost, Ronaldo had UCLs, etc. With none of them in play, PSG’s Champions League win is the biggest trophy buzz – hence the PSG bias in favorites.

It’s worth noting though: Ballon d’Or isn’t purely about odds or stats. It’s voted on by journalists worldwide. Sometimes “narrative” swings ballots.

Last year’s Messi wasn’t the best scorer of 2023, but his World Cup legend status swayed voters. In 2016, Ronaldo’s CL hat-trick over Atletico might have been the decider. So even Yamal at 3/1, if he dazzles on the World stage (say at a mid-25 international tourney) could push him up. Salah’s story as an older icon could tug on hearts.

Tips for Fans & Pundits: If you’re debating this over drinks, consider the key factors that usually tip the Ballon:

• Trophy Haul: Look at which candidate won important trophies this season (CL and major leagues are big).
• Goal Contribution: Check who racked up goals/assists in big games (Dembélé’s 35 goals, Salah’s Golden Boot).
• Team Impact: See who was “the engine” of their squad (Yamal as a teenager leading Barca’s attack, for example).
• Momentum: Pay attention to recent form or headlines (e.g. a Club World Cup performance like Dembélé’s could add extra shine).

At a 30,000-foot view, Ousmane Dembélé has a huge lead: he played everywhere, scored tons, and won it all. Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal is his closest rival on current evidence – a talent storybook addition – and Salah is next thanks to his scoring feats. Others like Vitinha, Raphinha or Mbappé could steal headlines, but betting markets treat them as longshots.

Conclusion – Watching the Race Unfold

The latest odds and expert opinions point squarely to Paris: Ousmane Dembélé is the player to beat. Barcelona’s teen phenom Lamine Yamal is the spirited challenger, and Mohamed Salah’s veteran brilliance keeps him in the conversation. But football is nothing if not unpredictable. A few more highlight reels (or trophy lifts) could sway the final vote in September.

Stay tuned to see how it unfolds. In the meantime, sound off: Who do you think deserves the 2025 Ballon d’Or? Your pick might just surprise the experts!