What can be decided in top-five race this weekend?
Busayo Okedusi
May 16, 2025
The race for Champions League football is heating up with only four spots up for grabs. Only confirmed team in Europe's premier competition for next season are the champions Liverpool.
Arsenal have been chasing the champions all season long but a deep run in Europe has seen them take their eye of the ball domestically. Meanwhile, Manchester City and Newcastle United closed the gap on the North London club and are within striking distance.
Clubs like Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest all very much still in the race but one team will miss out. Let's have a look at which clubs can decide their faith this weekend -
Arsenal will clinch a Champions League spot if they beat Newcastle on Sunday.
A draw will also be enough unless Chelsea and Aston Villa both win on Friday, and Manchester City avoid defeat on Tuesday. But because the Gunners' goal difference is significantly better than the sides below them, a draw will realistically ensure a top-five spot, regardless of results elsewhere.
If they lose, Arsenal will qualify for Europe's elite competition should Villa fail to win or if both Chelsea and Nottingham Forest fail to win. This takes into account that Forest host Chelsea on the final day and both sides cannot catch the Gunners.
Because of Arsenal's goal difference, the only scenario in which they could retain a realistic chance of missing out on Champions League qualification would be if they lose and both Chelsea and Villa win.
A win will guarantee Newcastle a Champions League place UNLESS Chelsea and Aston Villa both win and Manchester City avoid defeat. But because of their goal difference advantage over Villa, a win will realistically ensure a top-five spot for Eddie Howe's side, regardless of results elsewhere.
A draw will be good enough if:
- Aston Villa lose (as Forest play Chelsea on the final day and both sides wouldn't be able to overtake the Magpies)
- Chelsea lose and Nottingham Forest fail to win
Should Newcastle and Villa both draw, Eddie Howe's side would be realistically assured of Champions League qualification because of their goal difference. The same applies if the Magpies lose, Villa also lose and either Forest or Chelsea fail to win.
Manchester City will qualify for the Champions League if they defeat Bournemouth and Villa fail to win, OR City claim victory and both Chelsea and Nottingham Forest fail to win.
Because of City's goal difference, a point against the Cherries will realistically be enough if Chelsea or Forest fail to win and Aston Villa lose.
Chelsea can't mathematically clinch a top-five spot before the final day – but if they win and both Villa and Forest lose, their superior goal difference would make it all but certain. Should Chelsea win, Villa lose and Forest draw, the Londoners would have to lose their last game (against Forest) by at least four goals to be caught.
Note - Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest currently occupy sixth and seventh in the Premier League table and will need results to go their way even if they win the remainder of their matches.
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